🏡 2026 Mortgage Rate Predictions: What Zillow & Realtor.com Expect Next

And what it means for Long Island homeowners

Mortgage rates have been the biggest wildcard in real estate for the past three years — and this week, both Zillow and Realtor.com released updated forecasts that finally give us a clearer picture of where things are heading.
If you’re thinking about buying, selling, or refinancing in 2026, these predictions matter.

Let’s break down what the experts are saying.

📌 1. Mortgage Rates Will Stay Above 6% Through 2026

Both Zillow and Realtor.com agree: rates are not dropping below 6% next year.

• Zillow expects rates to remain above 6%, shaped by inflation and economic cooling.
• Realtor.com forecasts an average of 6.3% for 2026, with year‑end rates around the same level.

What this means:
Buyers waiting for 4% or 5% rates will be waiting a long time. But steady rates create predictability — and predictability brings buyers back.

📌 2. Affordability Will Improve (Slowly)

Even with rates above 6%, both platforms expect affordability to get slightly better.

• Realtor.com expects the typical mortgage payment share of income to fall below 30% for the first time since 2022.
• Zillow notes that gradual rate moderation will help more buyers stay active.

Translation:
Payments won’t be cheap — but they’ll be more manageable than in 2024–2025.

📌 3. Home Sales Will Rise (But Not Skyrocket)

Both forecasts show a modest rebound:

• Zillow projects 4.26 million home sales in 2026 — a 4.3% increase from 2025.
• Realtor.com expects 4.13 million sales, up 1.7%.

Why this matters:
More buyers will re‑enter the market — but we’re not returning to the frenzy of 2021–2022.

📌 4. Home Prices Will Rise Modestly

No crash. No spike. Just slow, steady growth.

• Zillow predicts 1.2% home value growth in 2026.
• Realtor.com forecasts 2.2% appreciation.

For Long Island sellers:
This is good news — your equity remains strong and stable.

📌 5. Inventory Will Improve, But Not Enough to Flip the Market

Realtor.com expects inventory to rise nearly 9% year‑over‑year.
Zillow notes that even with more listings, rates above 6% will keep many homeowners locked in, limiting how much inventory can grow.

Bottom line:
2026 will still favor sellers in many markets — including Long Island.

🧭 What This Means for Long Island Homeowners

• Rates will stay higher than buyers want — but stable enough to keep the market moving.
• Prices will continue rising, protecting your equity.
• More buyers will return as affordability improves.
• Inventory will grow, but not enough to erase seller leverage.

This is a “slow‑and‑steady” market — not a boom, not a bust.

📣 On the fence about selling? Let's talk strategy

Your home’s equity is one of your biggest financial assets — and today’s market is still working in your favor.
If you’re considering selling in 2026, now is the time to understand exactly where your home stands in this new, more predictable market.

I offer a clear, data‑backed pricing review using OneKey MLS trends and national forecasts — no pressure, just guidance.
Let’s talk about your home’s value and your next move.

📞 Message me anytime to get started.